Climate Change and its Impact on Agricultural Productivity in India

Abstract

Climate change has a serious impact on the availability of various resources on the earth especially water, which sustains life on this planet. Changes in the biosphere, biodiversity and natural resources are adversely affecting human health and quality of life. Throughout the 21stcentury, India is projected to experience warming above global level. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers. Longevity of heat waves across India has extended in recent years with warmer night temperatures and hotter days, and this trend is expected to continue. The average temperature change is predicted to be 2.33°C-4.78°C with a doubling in CO2 concentrations. These heat waves will lead to increased variability in summer monsoon precipitation, which will result in drastic effects on the agriculture sector in India. Climate models predict a gradual rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature across the globe. These models, however, are not very precise in predicting future changes in local weather conditions

Introduction

Agriculture production is directly dependent on climate change and weather.

All climate models predict that there will be more extreme weather conditions, with more droughts, heavy rainfall and storms in agricultural production regions. In developing countries like India, climate change is an additional burden since ecological and socio-economic systems already face pressures from rapid population, industrialization and economic development.

Agriculture contributes 14% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India, 64% of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood.

India is home to 16% of the world population, but only 4% of the world water resources. Agriculture is directly dependent on climate, since temperature, sunlight and water are the main drivers of crop growth.

Indian agriculture consumes about 80-85% of the nation’s available water.

Impact of Climate Change on Crop Productivity

Rainfall in India has a direct relationship with the monsoons which originate from the Indian and Arabian Seas. A warmer climate will accelerate the hydrologic cycle, altering rainfall, magnitude and timing of run-off. Climate change has a direct impact on crop evapotranspiration (ET). Change in climate will affect the soil moisture, groundwater recharge, and frequency of flood or drought, and finally groundwater level in different areas]. Effect of climate change will affect water cycle. In addition, rise in sea level will increase the risk of permanent or seasonal saline intrusion into ground water and rivers which will have an impact on quality of water and its potential use of domestic, agricultural and industrial uses.

Agriculture will need better management of natural resources like land, water and genetic resources to make it more resilient. India has made a National Action Plan on Climate Change which was unveiled in 2008. There are eight national missions that would form the core of the national plan. These include national missions for solar energy, enhanced energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, conserving water, sustaining the Himalayan eco-system, a “Green India”, sustainable agriculture and strategic knowledge platform for climate change. However, there are some innovative responses by water utilities to address these climate change risks and it has resulted in pushing the frontiers in a number of areas. It includes desalination, re-use and storm water harvesting and aquifer recharge. It would be worthwhile to give high priority to “more crops per drop” approach, rainwater harvesting, aquifer recharge, revival of water bodies and conservation technologies.

Conclusion

Global climate change will bring about changes in the quality and quantity water resources and crop productivity. It can be concluded that the Indian region is highly sensitive to climate change. Agriculture sector is the most prone sector as it will have a direct bearing on the living of 1.2 billion people. There is an urgent need for coordinated efforts to strengthen the research to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture, forests, animal husbandry, aquatic life and other living beings.